“The increase in fuel prices in March 2026 is a direct result of upward pressure on the international price of oil due to both supply and logistics risks following the start of hostilities between Iran and the US and Israel. The Road Freight Association (RFA) has noted with both dismay and concern, that the price of diesel is increasing between R0.60 and R0.65 per litre.
Given that diesel is the primary source of fuel for most medium and heavy commercial transporters, this will place an immediate cost burden on daily operations. Transporters will be faced with – either immediately or later, depending on their operating models or agreements – factoring this increase (and any others that may arise) into their pricing when offering freight transportation services. This means that the gains which were achieved through the gradual reduction of the basic fuel price during 2025, will be erased and the consumer will, inevitably, begin to feel this change in increasing prices at the till.
Unfortunately, fuel is one of the basic input costs in a transportation business that has huge impact on rates for transport. The general economy will also not be immune – with this pressure becoming an upward inflationary force – thus affecting both future decisions regarding the repro rate and the value of the rand in the pocket of the man on the street.”
By Gavin Kelly, CEO of the Road Freight Association
Petrol hits pockets
Frank Blackmore, Lead Economist at KPMG South Africa
The war in Iran and most particularly, the supply blockages of oil through the strait of Hormoz has led to increases in the oil price from around $68 dollars prior to the start of the war to around $105 barrel currently, that’s about a 54% increase. At the same time, we have seen the currency depreciate from R15.92 all the way to R16.75 currently – around 5% depreciation. What this means for the fuel prices, is that the basic fuel price will go up at an estimated 42% and the new price would be around R5.30 higher for April than it would have be in March. This represents a 26% increase in prices to a level for 95 Octane inland that is still below the highest we saw a year or so ago at the height of inflation.
If I look at the over or under recovery on the fuel price, currently it is nowhere near that R5 rate. Based on Friday’s [6 March 2026] prices, petrol prices were going to increase around R2.80 while diesel is slightly higher around that R5 increase mark. So, it is possible for fuel prices to increase as reported on the weekend to R8 but that would require a lot further depreciation in the rand, combined with a lot higher oil price at this point.
There is no real way for consumers to get around this, as fuel prices will impact the movement of all goods and services and therefore this will be quite broad-based and have an inflationary impact. Currently determined that direct impact is around 1% increase in inflation, that puts us at around 4.5% for April. This is an estimate as I am not taking into account what will happen to the other goods and services over this period of time.
Hayley Parry, Money Coach and Facilitator at 1Life’s Truth About Money
Recent reports warn that South Africa could face a petrol price increase of up to R8 per litre, largely driven by soaring global oil prices caused by rising tensions in the Middle East and the United States. A sudden R8‑per‑litre fuel increase would have a severe impact on households. With the petrol price scheduled for its monthly review on 1 April, and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is expected to announce the official price change only a few days before that date, consumers now have just under a month to financially prepare by doing the following:
Consumers need to tighten their belts knowing there is a high likelihood of a steep increase coming in April by avoiding unnecessary new debt and identifying non‑essential spending that can temporarily be paused.
Put money aside to soften the blow for the next month or two and ease the potential financial pressure.
Understand that this fuel price increase will likely filter through into other areas besides just the cost of traveling. It would increase food prices, electricity costs and affect everyday living expenses. However, proactive planning, careful budgeting, and reducing fuel dependence where possible can help soften this impact.